Trainline shares slump on sales, Iran war outlook

(Sharecast News) - Shares in Trainline slumped on Wednesday as the online rail ticket platform as it warned the Iran war and a series of policy measures in the UK would hit sales this year.

The company on Wednesday said it expected £6.2bn - £6.45bn in sales, compared with £6.3bn in fiscal 2025/26 - a rise of 7%. Adjusted core earnings rose 11% to £177m.

Trainline expects headwinds in the UK from fare freezes and train companies promoting their own ticket channels, while the impact of a series of rail tragedies in Spain was still being felt. Shares in the company were down 7% in London trade.

In Britain the government's promotion of contactless payments at stations to simplify the country's complicated ticketing structure and cut reliance on third-party sellers is expected to cut Trainline's UK consumer net ticket sales by around £150m a year.

"In addition, the effects of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East on inbound air traffic into Europe is also weighing on foreign travel sales," Trainline said.

"Looking forward, we see significant growth opportunities for the business, including increasing the value we derive from our 18 million customers in the UK, the upcoming wave of carrier competition in Italy and France - with aggregated routes across both countries expected to be worth €10bn by 2030 - and growing B2B rail travel across the UK and Europe."

Revenue is expected to come in at £440m - £455m this year, compared with £453m in 2025/26 with some impact on refund fees due to tighter refund rules in the UK from April 2026 and mix effects from faster growth in international consumer and Trainline Solutions, which generate lower revenue as a percentage of net ticket sales on a pre-transaction fee basis.

Reporting by Frank Prenesti for Sharecast.com

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