Berenberg upgrades BHP to 'hold'

(Sharecast News) - Analysts at Berenberg upgraded mining giant BHP from 'sell' to 'hold' on Thursday, ahead of its third quarter operational update later in April. Berenberg expects BHP to report "a slightly softer quarter for copper", and pointed to volumes of 477,000 tonnes, down from from 491,000 in the December quarter, principally due to softer grades at Escondida in Chile.

The German bank expects BHP's Western Australia iron ore business to produce 61.2m tonnes, down quarter-on-quarter as a result of weather impacts. It also assumes shipments of the same amount.

"We forecast metallurgical coal volumes of 4.4mt and thermal coal volumes of 3.7mt. We also expect the company to provide an update on the progress of construction for the Jansen potash project in Canada, which is due to start production in mid-2027," said Berenberg, which lowered its target price from 2,600p to 2,500p.

"We update our model for the price deck and add in opex inflation in 2026 (which we ease in 2028). We think that BHP has a defensive portfolio mix for the current macro backdrop as well as dividend upside catalysts."

Berenberg added that BHP shares were trading at 1.41x net asset value and 6.4x FY27 EBITDA.





Reporting by Iain Gilbert at Sharecast.com