Gulf oil output slumps in March as OPEC cuts Q2 demand forecast

(Sharecast News) - Oil production across OPEC member nations plunged by over a quarter during the month of March, according to the group's latest output figures, with Gulf countries seeing sharp declines in output as a result of direct disruption from the Iran war. The latest OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report revealed that production across its 12 member countries totalled 20.8m barrels per day last month, down 27% compared with the the 28.7m b/d produced in February.

A near-standstill along the key Strait of Hormuz trade channel has seen oil-producing nations of the Gulf restrict production amid attacks by Iran across the region.

Four of the OPEC's 12 member states recorded significant month-on-month declines in output, with its largest producing region, Saudi Arabia, seeing a 23% drop to 7.80m b/d in March.

Meanwhile, production in Iraq fell 61% to 1.63m b/d, fell 53% in Kuwait to 1.21m b/d and by 44% in the UAE to 1.89m b/d.

Iran, however, only saw a 5% drop in output to 3.06m b/d as Tehran allowed shipments to continue through the Strait of Hormuz.

Overall, OPEC continues to expect oil demand to total 106.5m b/d in 2026, up 1.38m b/d compared with 2025, though the organisation lowered its forecast for the second quarter by some 500,000 b/d, though this will be offset in the second half.