Shore Capital lifts NatWest estimates but keeps at 'hold'

(Sharecast News) - Shore Capital has raised its share price estimate for NatWest after a "strong set of FY results" from the bank, but kept a neutral stance on the stock, raising questions about whether the firm can maintain high-teens returns over the long term. The broker lifted its fair value prediction for the stock from 550p to 600p, but maintained a 'hold' recommendation.

Annual results from the company on Friday showed a 24% jump in pre-tax profit to £7.7bn, which was ahead of consensus forecasts by 3%, with net interest income ahead of expectations.

While the £750m share buyback announced was smaller than the £1bn investors had hoped for, return on tangible equity rose to 19.2% from 17.5%, marking the third straight year of high-teens returns.

"Updated guidance indicates this momentum should continue in the near term, with management targeting >17% in FY26F and >18% by FY28F, supported by the proposed acquisition of Evelyn Partners. However, the merits of the Evelyn deal remain uncertain given the significant reliance on both revenue and cost synergies for the transaction to be financially accretive," Shore Capital said.

"We incorporate management's guidance into our refreshed forecasts but retain concerns around the durability of high‑teens returns, which could attract greater competitive pressure and/or additional taxation over time."

The stock was down 0.2% at 606.4p by 1329 GMT.