Adyen shares slide on softer-than-expected payment volumes

(Sharecast News) - Adyen shares fell sharply on Thursday after the Dutch payments group reported softer-than-expected payment volumes and issued 2026 revenue guidance that trailed market forecasts, dampening sentiment toward the sector. The stock dropped as much as 20% in early trade and was down around more than 17% by late morning, leaving shares roughly 16% lower year to date.

Net revenue rose 17% year-on-year on a reported basis in the second half of 2025 to €1.27bn, or 21% on a constant currency basis.

Fourth-quarter net revenue increased 19% on a constant currency basis to €672m, about 2% below consensus estimates.

Growth in Europe, the Middle East and Africa and North America was 17% each, while revenue gains were "moderated by slower growth" from Asia-Pacific-based online retailers and a weaker dollar.

Asia-Pacific revenue growth accelerated slightly to 14%, driven largely by deeper relationships with existing customers.

Processed payment volumes totalled €745bn in the second half, up 19% year on year but below analyst expectations of around €771bn.

Fourth-quarter processed volumes of €398bn was also about 2% under consensus.

Second-half EBITDA rose 23% to €702.1m, slightly ahead of expectations, with margins expanding to around 55%.

Headcount increased 10% year-on-year to 4,771 employees at the end of December.

The company said it continued to expand in unified commerce, processing €173bn of in-store transactions in the period, up 26%, supported by partnerships with clients including Uber and Starbucks.

For 2026, Adyen guided to 20% to 22% net revenue growth on a constant currency basis, below analyst forecasts of roughly 22.8% at the midpoint and shy of its previous ambition for "low-to mid-20s" growth.

The company said the outlook was "underpinned by a strong pipeline and the continued ramp of our 2025 cohort," but added that it expected market volume growth to remain broadly in line with 2025 levels, reflecting ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty.

Adyen said it expected EBITDA margins in 2026 to be in line with 2025 levels, implying earnings of about €1.47bn to €1.51bn, around 5% below consensus estimates, according to Jefferies.

Looking further ahead, the company reiterated its target for a core profit margin above 55% by 2028, compared with about 53% last year.

At 1130 CET (1030 GMT), shares in Adyen were down 17.23% in Amsterdam at €957.00.

Reporting by Josh White for Sharecast.com.