Berenberg raises target price on BP following Q3 update

(Sharecast News) - Analysts at Berenberg lifted their target price on BP from 650p to 715p on Wednesday, citing stronger refining earnings, rapid balance‑sheet improvement and the prospect of buybacks returning in 2027 as gearing falls. Berenberg said BP's Q3 trading update on 13 October pointed to a "strong" quarter, with $9bn to $10bn of total liabilities removed and materially better gas marketing, trading and refining margins set to add around $2bn in underlying earnings versus Q2. Net debt was expected to drop to $13.5bn to $14.5bn before leases, aided further in Q4 by $6bn of Castrol divestment proceeds, taking total 2026 liability reduction to more than $23bn.

With deleveraging progressing faster than anticipated, Berenberg said attention will now shift to BP's 15 December strategy update, where it expects management to outline upstream growth plans and confirm a resumption of buybacks in 2027, initially modelling $2bn.

The German bank also highlighted the question of whether BP has sufficient high‑quality projects internally or will pivot from divestments to targeted acquisitions.

Berenberg, which reiterated its 'buy' rating on the stock, raised its 2026 earnings estimates by 15% and its 2027 forecasts by 10%, driven mainly by stronger refining.





Reporting by Iain Gilbert at Sharecast.com