Berenberg trims target price on Vistry following H1 update

(Sharecast News) - Analysts at Berenberg trimmed their target price on Vistry from 263p to 252p on Monday, but kept its 'hold' rating on the stock after the housebuilder's first‑half update and cut adjusted pre‑tax profit forecasts by an average of 26% across 2026-28. Berenberg said the H1 statement offered mixed signals - underlying profit expectations were downgraded again, but shareholders were likely reassured that the group does not expect to raise equity, while new chief executive Adam Daniels has set out what he sees as a sensible plan to make the business more resilient.

Even so, Berenberg said the risk/reward scenario remained neutral and that better opportunities existed elsewhere in the sector among peers with stronger balance sheets, lower valuations and more attractive capital‑return programmes.

Vistry reported a 9% fall in interim revenues to £1.70bn, driven by an 8% drop in volumes to 6,304 units. A weaker operating performance and several strategic initiatives contributed to a swing to a £83m pre‑tax loss, compared with an £81m profit a year earlier. Net debt rose to £469m from £293m.

The FTSE 250-listed group guided to adjusted FY26 PBT of £165m, down from £200m, though this excludes around £40m of partner deals delayed to secure improved terms. For FY27, Vistry expects adjusted PBT of £185m. Berenberg's updated forecasts align with guidance, and it noted Vistry's expectation of ending the year broadly cash‑neutral.

Daniels' strategy review will see Vistry continue with its mixed‑tenure model but operate in a smaller, simplified form targeting 12,000 units a year and 30% return on capital expended. Berenberg added that Vistry currently trades on 9x its 2027 earnings.







Reporting by Iain Gilbert at Sharecast.com