JPMorgan reiterates 'overweight' on Prudential; cites cash conversion, buyback upside

(Sharecast News) - JPMorgan reiterated its 'overweight' rating on Prudential on Friday on cash conversion and buyback upside. The bank said the negative reaction to Prudential's first-half results was overdone, although reflecting understandable concerns over H1 new business profit growth, and the outlook for the Mainland China Visitor business in Hong Kong around Decree 837 / taxation.

"We believe the market is extrapolating too much from a H1 result affected by mix changes and tough comparators," JPM said. "Prudential met or exceeded consensus expectations on 1H26 new business profit, earnings and cash flow, and management provided detailed regional guidance that supports improved growth momentum in 2H26E."

JPM said the stock is pricing in a contraction in growth that is not going to happen, in its view, trading at around 9.5x 2027 estimated price-to-earnings - a 15% discount to European insurers offering half the growth - and at a circa 25%-30% discount to AIA Group at 0.75x 2027E embedded value.

"Most importantly, free cash generation suggests a high single-digit free cash flow yield, and we see continued upside to capital return forecasts," the bank said.

At 1056 BST, the shares were down 1.6% at 1,022p.