Berenberg lowers target price on Boku following soft H1 update

(Sharecast News) - Analysts at Berenberg cut their target price on software firm Boku from 300p to 200p on Monday as they reduced their forecasts following a weaker‑than‑expected first‑half update, though they also said their investment thesis remained intact and reiterated their 'buy' recommendation. Boku warned that FY26 revenue and profits would be materially lower than consensus due to three operational headwinds, prompting cuts to revenue forecasts of 10%, 16% and 20% for FY26-28, and to adjusted underlying earnings estimates of 22%, 27% and 30%, respectively.

In H1, Boku said total payment volume came in at $8.3bn, below the $9.2bn consensus, though still up around 12% year‑on‑year, as the firm said its performance was held back by a key merchant shifting to dual sourcing in one major region, the suspension of two direct carrier billing connections in another market, and delays to merchant onboarding and new connection launches. Revenues rose 5% to $66.5m, below the $72.1m consensus, while adjusted EBITDA came in at $19.3m, missing expectations of $23.2m.

Boku now expects FY26 revenues of $135m to $142m, versus the $155m consensus, implying year‑on‑year growth of 5 to 10%, while adjusted EBITDA was forecast to be $38m to $42m, compared with $49.6m expected.

Berenberg said strategic progress continued in H1, highlighting Boku's contract with Stripe as a potential source of significant incremental volume. It added that the lower end of guidance reflected a "worst‑case" scenario, making the recent share‑price fall an attractive entry point.

The German bank added that Boku now trades on a 18.3x FY26 price-to-earnings ratio (ex‑cash) and a 4.1% FY26 free‑cash‑flow yield.











Reporting by Iain Gilbert at Sharecast.com