RBC Capital, Stifel initiate coverage of SpaceX

(Sharecast News) - RBC Capital Markets and Stifel initiated coverage of SpaceX on Tuesday at 'outperform' and 'buy' respectively. RBC said it believes much of the franchise value rests with the AI segment and its estimates reflect confidence in SpaceX's ability to execute to its orbital compute targets.

"We appreciate that the challenges facing SPCX are substantial, but believe investors will focus on the financial resources, engineering capability, vision, and critical importance of SpaceX to the US government and national security objectives," it said.

RBC, which set a price target of $225, said: "We can appreciate timing risk associated with the company's space aspirations, but we believe sentiment will benefit from a proven track record of disruption and innovation, an almost $2 trillion 2035 estimated total addressable market and virtually unmatched financial resources.

"Moreover, we believe SpaceX will continue to benefit from its position at the centre of two of the most profound investment themes of this generation: the evolution of the space-based economy and AI."

Stifel, which set a price target of $190, said its thesis rests on three pillars: a launch-cost moat, a connectivity earnings engine, and AI optionality.

It noted that SpaceX is the world's only provider of space infrastructure at scale. It said Falcon 9 booster reusability underpins a launch frequency and cost advantage no competitor has matched.

"Early space niches are maturing into deep new markets as terrestrial applications converge into low Earth orbit - telecom first, data-centre infrastructure next," it said.

Starlink is the earnings engine, Stifel argued, and still in the early innings. It said the business rests on the largest satellite constellation in any orbit: 10,000+ satellites deployed, roughly 85% of all satellites launched globally in 2025.

It also said that next-gen V3 satellites will carry more than 10x the downlink capacity of the current generation. "As the performance and capability gap to terrestrial alternatives narrows, Starlink has a uniquely long runway to expand its low-single-digit share of the global broadband, enterprise, and direct-to-cell markets," Stifel said.

Finally, Stifel said that AI is the "swing variable", while "compute is the floor, owned intelligence the upside".

Stifel said ground momentum is notable, scaling toward circa 1.4 GW, with leasing deals - Anthropic, Google, and others - monetising capacity near-term.

SpaceX was set to join the Nasdaq-100 on Tuesday.