Outlook subdued as private sector activity falters - CBI

(Sharecast News) - Private sector activity continued to weaken in the three months to January, an industry survey showed on Monday, weighing on sentiment. According to the Confederation of British Industry's latest growth indicator, private sector activity fell in the three months to January, with a balance of -33, largely unchanged on December's -34. All sub-sectors reported falling activity, the CBI noted.

The weak performance also weighed on expectations, with activity forecast to continue faltering in the coming months.

The balance for activity expectations over the next three months was -20, although it was an improvement on December's -30.

The most pessimistic were consumer services providers, with a balance of -38 expecting business volumes to decline over the next three months. Professional services firms were more confident, with a balance of -11, giving the overall sector a balance of -16.

Away from the dominant services sector, business volumes in the distribution and manufacturing sectors were also slated to fall, with balances of -37 and -14 respectively.

Alpesh Paleja, CBI deputy chief economist, said: "The UK economy has not experienced a strong start to 2026.

"While there are tentative signs of stabilisation and resilience in some specific areas, the big picture remains similar to much of last year: businesses remain cautious, households are downtrading and confidence is still fragile.

"Recent geopolitical tensions will only have added to uncertainty at the margin.

"Worrying, our latest surveys show that persistently weak growth expectations are now accompanied by an uptick in price pressures, at a time when inflation is already uncomfortably high."

The growth indicator is a composite measure based on responses to various CBI surveys. In total, 904 firms responded between 18 December and 13 January.

A balance is the weighted percentage of companies reporting an increase minus those reporting a decrease.